2016 Parliamentary Elections

GFK Poll Shows Georgian Dream and UNM Neck-and-Neck

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On August 23 Rustavi 2 published the results of an pre-election opinion poll, conducted by the German-American organization, GFK. The 2,200 respondents were asked a number of questions about their opinions of Georgia’s political parties. The survey was conducted between August 2-18 using face-to-face interviews and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1%.

In response to the question, ‘Which party would you vote for if the parliamentary elections were held today’, the respondents answered as follows:

The Georgian Dream 25.8%
The United National Movement 25.5%
Paata Burchuladze’s State for People 6.9%
The Labor Party 3.7%
Irakli Alasania’s Free Democrats - 2.9%
Irma Inashvili’s Patriots Alliance - 1.6%
Nino Burjanadze’s Democratic Movement 1.4%
The Republican Party 0.5%
Political Center of the Cone 0.4%
Giorgi Vashadze’s New Georgia - 0.4%

Undecided - 19%

Would not vote for any party - 3.0%

Refused to answer - 7.7%

Amongst 19% of the voters who stated that they were undecided, the GFK asked additional questions to find out the political leanings of undecided voters. They hypothesize that based on the further questions put to undecided voters, they may vote as follows:

The Georgian Dream - 35.9%

The United National Movement - 34.2%

Paata Burchuladze party State For The People -  9.8%.
The Labour Party - 5.4%.
The Free Democrats - 4.5%
Irma Inashvili’s Patriot Alliance Party - 2.4%.
Nino Burjanadze’s Democratic Movement-United Georgia - 2.2% of voters.

The New Republican party - 0.7%.
Giorgi Vashadze’s New Georgia - 0.5%.
NPC Girchi - 0.5%
In the beginning of survey Girchi, Giorgi Vashadze and Paata Burchuladze were not united as they are now under one coalition and the Republicans still held their governmental positions.

The poll was conducted before the NPC party and Giorgi Vashadze’s New Georgia Party merged with the State for the People Party, which is why they are still individually listed in the survey results.

When asked who they would vote for if presidential elections were held, the survey respondents answered as follows:

Giorgi Margvelashvili, current president of Georgia - 10.5%
UNM leader, David Bakradze - 9.1%
Former President of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili - 6.9%
Irakli Alasania - 4.8%
Giorgi Kvirikashvili - 3%
Paata Burchuladze - 3.6%

The poll found that in the upcoming parliamentary elections, four parties will definitely cross the minimum threshold [which is 5%]. These are: The Georgian Dream, the United National Movement, Paata Burchuladze’s State for People and the Labour Party. The research also found that 46.4% of those surveyed approve of activities done by current government while 48.3% don’t.

According to the research 46.3% of those surveyed believe that the country is developing in the right direction while 28.9% think that it is not. 24.8% could not say. The poll also found that the most pressing issues amongst respondents were unemployment, low salaries, poverty and territorial unity.

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