Georgia’s 2016 parliamentary election is scheduled to take place on October 8th and will decide how many parties will enter the Parliament of Georgia and with how many seats. The 2012 Parliamentary Elections saw a peaceful transfer of power from the United National Movement (UNM) to the Georgian Dream. The Georgian Dream won 57% of the seats at the last election. In the run up to this year’s vote both of the leading parties, the Georgian Dream and the UNM, have sought to offer new faces. Paata Burchuladze, a famous public figure and opera singer, has also entered the political arena to lead the party, “State for the People”. This year’s election is one of the most contested in Georgia’s history and polls indicate that the leading parties have little chance of winning an outright majority.
According to the Central Electoral Commission, there are 19 political parties and six coalitions registered for the 2016 Parliamentary Elections. Opinion polls have found the major contenders to be: the Georgian Dream, the United National Movement, “Paata Burchuladze - State for the People”, the Patriots’ Alliance, the Free Democrats and the Labour Party.
Several national and international organisations are set to evaluate whether the proceedings of the campaign period and vote counting process correspond with international standards and obligations for democratic elections. Campaign activities, media coverage and the work of the Central Electoral Commission will be observed during this period. The main aim of observers is to ensure that the elections are held in a peaceful and fair manner. The issues that have dominated the election campaign are the imprisonment of the opposition leaders, allegations of informal governance and the country’s poor economic performance.
According to a poll by the National Democratic Institute (NDI), 33% of respondents think that the country is not heading in the right direction; 25% think it’s heading in the right direction; and 34% think that the country is not changing at all.
How do Georgian Parliamentary Elections work?
Recently there have been some major changes to the electoral system. Constituency boundaries were redrawn following a decision by the Constitutional Court. The decision was criticised by the opposition who accused the Georgian Dream of trying to gerrymander districts in their favour. Another major change is that majoritarian candidates for single-mandate districts will now have to receive 50% of the vote instead of 30%, as it was in the past. If none of the candidates pass the 50% threshold then a runoff vote will be held between the two candidates who won the most votes. Seventy-three out of the 150 seats of the parliament will be filled in this way. The rest will be filled by party list candidates.
The Georgian Dream have delayed plans to abolish the single mandate system till 2020, despite strong criticism of the system by the President, opposition parties, local and international organisations which have said that the system doesn’t ensure a proportional distribution of votes. Supporters of the system claim that the direct election of MPs leads to a sense of greater political representation amongst people, however according to research conducted by the National Democratic Institute (NDI), 69% of people don’t know who their local member of parliament is.
At the polling station, candidates will cast one vote for a majoritarian candidate running in their district, and a second vote for a national party list. Seventy-seven seats in the parliament will be distributed amongst the parties according to the proportion of list votes they receive. Parties must pass a minimum threshold of 4% in order to win seats in the parliament.
Election in Numbers
More than 800 majoritarian candidates have registered for 2016 Parliamentary elections, out of which, 57 are independent candidates and only 132 are female. Three parties, the Georgian Dream, the UNM and Alliance of Patriots, have candidates in almost every electoral district. The Alliance of Patriots is represented in 71 districts and the Free Democrats in 64. The number of majoritarian candidates per district varies from 6 to 16. Initially State for the People had candidates in 72 districts, but one of the parties from the coalition, NPC Girchi, withdrew from the bloc thus reducing their total number of candidates. Girchi will no longer run in the 2016 Parliamentary Elections after the Burchuladze reportedly asked them to leave the coalition.
According to a report published in July by the National Democratic Institute, the aforementioned parties look set to win the largest share of the votes. According to an NDI poll, if the elections were held tomorrow 19% of respondents said they would vote for the Georgian Dream, 14% said the United National Movement, 13% refuse to answer and 5% said they wouldn’t vote for anyone. Four percent said they would vote for Paata Burchuladze - State for the People, and 3% said the Alliance of Patriots. Seven percent named “other parties” - with political coalitions were named by less than 3%: the Free Democrats, Labour Party, United Democratic Movement and others. However in its latest survey, the International Republican Institute (IRI) has also included Free Democrats (11%) and Labour Party (8%) in its top five parties. The NDI poll also found that 57% of voters were undecided.
A poll published last week, commissioned by Rustavi 2 and conducted by the German-American polling agency GFK found that the United National Movement (UNM) has just edged ahead of the Georgian Dream by half of a percentage point. Amongst respondents who stated that they would vote, 26% said they intended to vote for the UNM and 25.4% for the Georgian Dream. The Labour Party and the Free Democrats were selected by 3.8% and 3.6% of respondents respectively, whilst 2.6% of those surveyed said they intended to vote for Paata Burchuladze’s coalition, State For The People. One and a half percent of prospective voters said they would vote for the Patriots’ Alliance and Nino Burjanadze’s Democratic Movement. A fifth of of respondents said that they were still undecided as to whom to vote for.
The results show a slight increase in support for the UNM in comparison with polling data from August which found the Georgian Dream to be on 25.8% and the UNM on 25.5%.
Changes since 2012 Parliamentary Elections
The 2012 Parliamentary Elections were held in a politically charged atmosphere, after videos were leaked which showed people being tortured in Georgian prisons. Billionaire Bidznina Ivanishvili formed a coalition of opposition parties under the umbrella, ‘The Georgian Dream’, winning a majority of seats in the parliament.
Since that time a number of parties have left the Georgian Dream coalition. In November 2014, the Free Democrats became the first party to leave the coalition. The then Defence Minister of Georgia was the second to leave following a dispute over the so-called ‘Cable Case’. In April 2016 the National Forum which left the coalition and finally the Republican party of Georgia decided to run independently in the upcoming elections.
Even though Bidzina Ivanishvili, the former Prime Minister of Georgia and founder of Georgian Dream isn’t running in the elections himself, he has been actively promoting the Georgian Dream during interviews with GDS TV.
Other parties have been campaigning by holding public meetings and their candidates have made a number of media appearances. Most of the parties have advocated for a liberal economic agenda, promising to reduce taxes and to cut back on red tape for small and medium businesses. However, a number of populist promises have also been made. For example Irakli Alasania, the leader of the Free Democrats, has promised everyone a minimum wage of 500 GEL.
Most recently, UNM leader and Member of Parliament Givi Targamadze survived an assassination attempt. Targamadze’s car exploded in central Tbilisi, close to Freedom Square. Targamadze and his driver were in the vehicle at the time, and sustained only minor injuries. Five passers-by were injured and hospitalized. The police are investigating the incident as an attempted assassination and the Georgia Dream has accused the opposition of involvement in the violent incident, while the UNM has criticized the Georgian Dream for its for inability to enforce rule of law and guarantee citizens’ safety.
During the election campaign period, a number of other incident have taken place. Shots were fired at a campaign meeting of majoritarian candidate Irakli Okraushvili in Gori. A member of Okrashvili’s security team and a party activist were shot. Okruashvili has claimed that responsibility for the attack lies with the regional Georgian Dream activists.
The relationship between the two major parties, the Georgian Dream and the United National Movement has soured in recent months after a number of such incidents. A UNM office was raided while the Prime Minister has accused the UNM of allegedly forming clandestine organisations to provoke tensions ahead of the elections. However, the UNM has on a number of occasions accused the government of being behind violent acts committed against them and their supporters. In one controversial incident, leading members of the UNM were beaten up outside of a polling station in Samegrelo.
Support for pro-Russian organisations has increased in recent years and they have been accused of disseminating views sympathetic towards Russia. According to a poll conducted by the NDI, 29% of people believe Georgia’s relationship with Russia to be more profitable. Both the current and previous governments have been clear in their support for Georgia’s European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Some smaller parties have however expressed a desire for improved ties with Russia. Nino Burjanadze - Democratic Movement or Patriots’ Alliance refrained from making any specific statements as such, but has argued for improved relations with Russia and for a pro-Russian foreign policy. Burjanadze suggested that the Parliament of Georgia should discuss amending the constitution to state that Georgia is a “non-aligned” country.
A party which hasn’t hesitated in expressing their pro-Russian views is the “Centrists Khachishvili-Bedukadze”. This openly pro-Russian party promised to provide citizens with Russian pensions of 400 GEL, to allow for joint Russian-Georgian citizenship and to permit Russia to open military bases in Georgia. The party was banned from elections by the Central Election Commission on August 16. The Chairwoman of the Central Electoral Commision, Tamar Zhvania, said that the decision to ban the party was reached after the National Agency of Public Registry announced that the Centrists’ party has had no legal leadership since 2006. The leaders of Centrist party Temur Khachishvili and Vladimer Bedukadze will still run in the elections as members of the Georgian Communist Party - Stalinists.
Several organisations have addressed the implications of strengthening pro-Russian forces, such as Institute for the Development of Freedom of Information (IDFI) which has found that Russian propaganda has intensified in recent years and has argued that the Government of Georgia should come up with the national strategy against propaganda. According to a poll conducted by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) in May 2015, 68% of the population support Georgia’s aspiration to become a member of the European Union, 65% support NATO membership while 31% of people support the idea of Georgia joining the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union.
Funding and Political Donations
Financial monitoring of political parties is conducted by the State Audit Office of Georgia, which publishes its reports online. Transparency International Georgia has also launched a web portal, where citizens can see all the donations made to parties and cross-check this with open source data about donors and their affiliations.
It is prohibited to receive donations from individuals or legal entities based outside of Georgia, religious organisations, non-profit organisations, individuals without citizenship or state institutions (with a few exceptions). Donations also cannot be made anonymously. The highest amount that an individual can donate is 60 000 GEL, whereas for a legal entity the cap on donations is 120 000 GEL. This year the Georgian Dream received donations of 12 697 005 GEL. Paata Burchuladze’s State for the People received the second largest amount of donations, 3,240,875 GEL, followed by Patriots’ Alliance which received 1 009 755 GEL and The United National Movement with the donations worth 823 523 GEL.
Several national and international organisations are set to evaluate whether the proceedings of the campaign period and vote counting process correspond with international standards and obligations for democratic elections. Campaign activities, media coverage and the work of the Central Electoral Commission will be observed during this period.
The elections will be observed by the National Democratic Institute (NDI), as well as the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) and the International Republican Institute (IRI).
Other international observer missions include the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), the International Society for Human Rights (ISHR), the US Embassy in Georgia, the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, the British Embassy, the Central Electoral Commission of Latvia, the Central Electoral Committee of Estonia, the Delian Project and the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey.
Four local organisations have also registered to observe the elections. They are: Transparency International Georgia (TI Georgia), the International Society for Fair Elections and Democracy (ISFED), the Georgian Young Lawyers’ Association (GYLA) and the Public Movement “Multinational Georgia” (PMMG).
A report on the campaign period issued by the International Republican Institute (IRI) found that the election was likely to be a tight contest, predicting run-offs in a number of electoral districts. The report also found the media coverage of the campaigns to be generally impartial and balanced.
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